Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| November 20 2020 | 6930 | 36181 | 207 | 50 | 1707 | 2214 |
| November 21 2020 | 7075 | 36582 | 211 | 54 | 1783 | 2178 |
| November 22 2020 | 7182 | 36736 | 215 | 54 | 1707 | 2146 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 8.1 | 4.3% | 73 | 0.63% | 85 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 25.6 | 14.1% | 241 | 1.77% | 310 | 2.28% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 46.9 | 24.3% | 414 | 1.98% | 534 | 2.55% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 31.4 | 16.4% | 280 | 2.06% | 346 | 2.54% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 24.4 | 12.5% | 213 | 2.04% | 270 | 2.58% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 22.3 | 11.7% | 199 | 1.58% | 251 | 2% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 15.1 | 9.4% | 161 | 1.4% | 194 | 1.69% |
| 70+ | 11 | 14.3 | 7.4% | 126 | 1.2% | 156 | 1.49% |
| All ages | 107 | 188.1 | 100% | 1707 | 1.63% | 2146 | 2.05% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| November 20 2020 | 3969 | 22178 | 114 | 44 | 985 | 1365 |
| November 21 2020 | 4175 | 22331 | 115 | 45 | 1089 | 1462 |
| November 22 2020 | 4255 | 22428 | 117 | 45 | 1032 | 1502 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.0 | 2.6% | 27 | 0.35% | 42 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 7.3 | 6.8% | 70 | 0.83% | 113 | 1.34% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 16.9 | 16% | 165 | 2.32% | 233 | 3.28% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 20.0 | 18.6% | 192 | 2.28% | 287 | 3.41% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 15.7 | 16.6% | 171 | 2.2% | 256 | 3.3% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 19.1 | 17.1% | 176 | 1.81% | 246 | 2.54% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 13.7 | 12.6% | 130 | 1.55% | 193 | 2.3% |
| 70+ | 13 | 10.6 | 9.8% | 101 | 1.42% | 132 | 1.86% |
| All ages | 80 | 106.3 | 100% | 1032 | 1.6% | 1502 | 2.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| November 20 2020 | 3138 | 14614 | 114 | 35 | 1147 | 1453 |
| November 21 2020 | 3212 | 14737 | 116 | 36 | 1159 | 1415 |
| November 22 2020 | 3250 | 14829 | 117 | 37 | 1122 | 1389 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 4.0 | 3.7% | 42 | 0.77% | 54 | 0.99% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 9.7 | 8.9% | 100 | 1.84% | 129 | 2.38% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 9.7 | 14.6% | 164 | 3.62% | 201 | 4.44% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 14.1 | 17.2% | 193 | 3.55% | 222 | 4.09% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 13.1 | 14.3% | 160 | 3.21% | 191 | 3.84% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 13.4 | 16.7% | 187 | 2.76% | 228 | 3.36% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 12.7 | 13.9% | 156 | 2.46% | 196 | 3.09% |
| 70+ | 5 | 10.1 | 10.7% | 120 | 1.89% | 168 | 2.65% |
| All ages | 38 | 87.0 | 100% | 1122 | 2.48% | 1389 | 3.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| November 20 2020 | 7081 | 38863 | 137 | 32 | 1455 | 1907 |
| November 21 2020 | 7287 | 39084 | 138 | 32 | 1454 | 1896 |
| November 22 2020 | 7340 | 39279 | 139 | 32 | 1322 | 1871 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.6 | 2.7% | 36 | 0.3% | 55 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 12.9 | 9% | 119 | 0.72% | 183 | 1.11% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 31.3 | 21.4% | 283 | 1.33% | 392 | 1.84% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 27.4 | 17.9% | 236 | 1.74% | 316 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 19.0 | 12.1% | 160 | 1.18% | 238 | 1.75% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 22.0 | 16% | 212 | 1.49% | 290 | 2.04% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 18.0 | 11% | 146 | 1.03% | 215 | 1.52% |
| 70+ | 9 | 15.6 | 9.8% | 130 | 1% | 182 | 1.4% |
| All ages | 53 | 150.7 | 100% | 1322 | 1.12% | 1871 | 1.58% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| November 20 2020 | 24317 | 265581 | 715 | 72 | 4823 | 6510 |
| November 21 2020 | 24654 | 266695 | 726 | 75 | 4698 | 6380 |
| November 22 2020 | 24866 | 268134 | 729 | 75 | 4276 | 6343 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 24.0 | 5% | 214 | 0.36% | 320 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 36 | 80.3 | 17.8% | 763 | 1.07% | 1077 | 1.52% |
| 20-29 | 54 | 104.0 | 23.8% | 1019 | 0.98% | 1522 | 1.47% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 73.6 | 16.3% | 699 | 0.91% | 1022 | 1.34% |
| 40-49 | 37 | 60.6 | 13% | 557 | 0.85% | 843 | 1.28% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 49.6 | 11.1% | 474 | 0.72% | 708 | 1.08% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 32.6 | 7.4% | 315 | 0.58% | 451 | 0.82% |
| 70+ | 12 | 24.9 | 5.5% | 235 | 0.48% | 400 | 0.81% |
| All ages | 212 | 449.4 | 100% | 4276 | 0.78% | 6343 | 1.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| November 20 2020 | 344945 | 2062191 | 15526 | 2954 | 66102 | 88880 |
| November 21 2020 | 351169 | 2073860 | 15734 | 3005 | 65278 | 88039 |
| November 22 2020 | 354676 | 2085252 | 15823 | 3005 | 61288 | 87266 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 163 | 252.6 | 4.1% | 2506 | 0.39% | 3543 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 378 | 661.9 | 11.2% | 6886 | 0.91% | 9899 | 1.31% |
| 20-29 | 634 | 1008.1 | 17% | 10401 | 1.37% | 15034 | 1.99% |
| 30-39 | 530 | 972.6 | 15.9% | 9727 | 1.29% | 13697 | 1.81% |
| 40-49 | 522 | 900.7 | 14.7% | 9001 | 1.29% | 12695 | 1.82% |
| 50-59 | 519 | 954.3 | 15.9% | 9771 | 1.2% | 13709 | 1.68% |
| 60-69 | 431 | 691.1 | 11.4% | 6970 | 0.92% | 9930 | 1.31% |
| 70+ | 330 | 602.6 | 9.8% | 6026 | 0.94% | 8759 | 1.37% |
| All ages | 3507 | 6043.9 | 100% | 61288 | 1.05% | 87266 | 1.5% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 205.1 | 227.9 | 255.1 | 188.1 | 139.4 | 35.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 232.3 | 106.3 | 118 | 37.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 307 | 87 | 79.9 | 42.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 158.3 | 110.6 | 184.2 | 150.7 | 131.9 | 34.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 151.5 | 146.5 | 449.4 | 427.6 | 25.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 149.9 | 130.8 | 198.6 | 6043.9 | 5984.1 | 33.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 6.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.48 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2891"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges