Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 16 2020 6149 34583 193 42 1433 2054
November 17 2020 6251 35217 197 45 1354 2026
November 18 2020 6602 35585 201 46 1566 2286
November 19 2020 6778 35890 203 48 1647 2222
November 20 2020 6930 36181 207 50 1707 2214
November 21 2020 7075 36582 211 54 1783 2178
November 22 2020 7182 36736 215 54 1707 2146
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 8.1 4.3% 73 0.63% 85 0.74%
10-19 16 25.6 14.1% 241 1.77% 310 2.28%
20-29 26 46.9 24.3% 414 1.98% 534 2.55%
30-39 15 31.4 16.4% 280 2.06% 346 2.54%
40-49 17 24.4 12.5% 213 2.04% 270 2.58%
50-59 15 22.3 11.7% 199 1.58% 251 2%
60-69 6 15.1 9.4% 161 1.4% 194 1.69%
70+ 11 14.3 7.4% 126 1.2% 156 1.49%
All ages 107 188.1 100% 1707 1.63% 2146 2.05%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 16 2020 3580 21319 104 41 976 1547
November 17 2020 3693 21645 107 41 980 1565
November 18 2020 3797 21827 107 42 1044 1537
November 19 2020 3894 21946 109 43 1094 1460
November 20 2020 3969 22178 114 44 985 1365
November 21 2020 4175 22331 115 45 1089 1462
November 22 2020 4255 22428 117 45 1032 1502
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.0 2.6% 27 0.35% 42 0.54%
10-19 2 7.3 6.8% 70 0.83% 113 1.34%
20-29 15 16.9 16% 165 2.32% 233 3.28%
30-39 10 20.0 18.6% 192 2.28% 287 3.41%
40-49 10 15.7 16.6% 171 2.2% 256 3.3%
50-59 15 19.1 17.1% 176 1.81% 246 2.54%
60-69 12 13.7 12.6% 130 1.55% 193 2.3%
70+ 13 10.6 9.8% 101 1.42% 132 1.86%
All ages 80 106.3 100% 1032 1.6% 1502 2.32%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 16 2020 2721 14032 98 30 1036 1333
November 17 2020 2754 14235 104 34 957 1330
November 18 2020 2882 14400 109 35 1021 1388
November 19 2020 3023 14489 113 35 1104 1437
November 20 2020 3138 14614 114 35 1147 1453
November 21 2020 3212 14737 116 36 1159 1415
November 22 2020 3250 14829 117 37 1122 1389
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 4.0 3.7% 42 0.77% 54 0.99%
10-19 5 9.7 8.9% 100 1.84% 129 2.38%
20-29 2 9.7 14.6% 164 3.62% 201 4.44%
30-39 7 14.1 17.2% 193 3.55% 222 4.09%
40-49 6 13.1 14.3% 160 3.21% 191 3.84%
50-59 7 13.4 16.7% 187 2.76% 228 3.36%
60-69 4 12.7 13.9% 156 2.46% 196 3.09%
70+ 5 10.1 10.7% 120 1.89% 168 2.65%
All ages 38 87.0 100% 1122 2.48% 1389 3.07%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 16 2020 6449 37430 115 30 1275 1814
November 17 2020 6641 37750 121 31 1250 1901
November 18 2020 6845 38261 128 31 1376 1935
November 19 2020 6919 38594 132 32 1384 1884
November 20 2020 7081 38863 137 32 1455 1907
November 21 2020 7287 39084 138 32 1454 1896
November 22 2020 7340 39279 139 32 1322 1871
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 4.6 2.7% 36 0.3% 55 0.47%
10-19 4 12.9 9% 119 0.72% 183 1.11%
20-29 16 31.3 21.4% 283 1.33% 392 1.84%
30-39 6 27.4 17.9% 236 1.74% 316 2.32%
40-49 7 19.0 12.1% 160 1.18% 238 1.75%
50-59 4 22.0 16% 212 1.49% 290 2.04%
60-69 6 18.0 11% 146 1.03% 215 1.52%
70+ 9 15.6 9.8% 130 1% 182 1.4%
All ages 53 150.7 100% 1322 1.12% 1871 1.58%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 16 2020 22223 259512 673 61 4416 6016
November 17 2020 22930 261256 695 64 4656 6162
November 18 2020 23474 262791 706 68 4951 6511
November 19 2020 23869 263742 714 69 5072 6574
November 20 2020 24317 265581 715 72 4823 6510
November 21 2020 24654 266695 726 75 4698 6380
November 22 2020 24866 268134 729 75 4276 6343
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 9 24.0 5% 214 0.36% 320 0.53%
10-19 36 80.3 17.8% 763 1.07% 1077 1.52%
20-29 54 104.0 23.8% 1019 0.98% 1522 1.47%
30-39 35 73.6 16.3% 699 0.91% 1022 1.34%
40-49 37 60.6 13% 557 0.85% 843 1.28%
50-59 16 49.6 11.1% 474 0.72% 708 1.08%
60-69 13 32.6 7.4% 315 0.58% 451 0.82%
70+ 12 24.9 5.5% 235 0.48% 400 0.81%
All ages 212 449.4 100% 4276 0.78% 6343 1.16%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 16 2020 316758 2009148 14499 2649 60693 84462
November 17 2020 323848 2024801 14817 2741 60718 85781
November 18 2020 331837 2036941 15100 2793 64427 87835
November 19 2020 338472 2049526 15336 2876 66702 88548
November 20 2020 344945 2062191 15526 2954 66102 88880
November 21 2020 351169 2073860 15734 3005 65278 88039
November 22 2020 354676 2085252 15823 3005 61288 87266
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 163 252.6 4.1% 2506 0.39% 3543 0.55%
10-19 378 661.9 11.2% 6886 0.91% 9899 1.31%
20-29 634 1008.1 17% 10401 1.37% 15034 1.99%
30-39 530 972.6 15.9% 9727 1.29% 13697 1.81%
40-49 522 900.7 14.7% 9001 1.29% 12695 1.82%
50-59 519 954.3 15.9% 9771 1.2% 13709 1.68%
60-69 431 691.1 11.4% 6970 0.92% 9930 1.31%
70+ 330 602.6 9.8% 6026 0.94% 8759 1.37%
All ages 3507 6043.9 100% 61288 1.05% 87266 1.5%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
205.1 227.9 255.1 188.1 139.4 35.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
232.3 106.3 118 37.7%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
307 87 79.9 42.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
158.3 110.6 184.2 150.7 131.9 34.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
116 151.5 146.5 449.4 427.6 25.6%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
149.9 130.8 198.6 6043.9 5984.1 33.5%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

Column {data-width=600}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column {data-width=200}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

Column

Reliable Updated Visuals

Column

Modeling

Column {data-width=600}

Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 6.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.48 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2891"

Column {data-width=600}

Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red